BLAST Open Porto Semifinals: Schedule and Matchups
Spirit face Falcons, while MOUZ meet Vitality in the BLAST Open Porto 2026 semifinals. Match times, team form and key storylines.
September 5, 202611:41 AM
Liquid vs Vitality: what the recent numbers say before BLAST Bounty
Liquid will debut their new lineup against Vitality in the opening round of BLAST Bounty Season 2 on July 24. The match will be played online in a best-of-three format, with Liquid selecting the tournament’s top seed as their opponent.
The matchup is difficult to evaluate through historical data alone. Liquid have changed both their AWPer and in-game leader since their last official appearance, adding Jorko and replacing siuhy with JT. As a result, the available statistics describe the team’s recent baseline rather than the system that will actually face Vitality.
Recent form
Sample period: May 24–July 23, 2026. Official matches only.
| Metric | Liquid | Vitality |
|---|---|---|
| Series record | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Map record | 3–4 | 8–6 |
| Map win rate | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Total rounds won–lost | 67–78 | 158–135 |
| Round differential | –11 | +23 |
| Opponents | BIG, BetBoom, MIBR, HEROIC, FlyQuest | FUT, 9z, MOUZ, BetBoom, Falcons |
Map pool
Sample period: May 24–July 23, 2026. Official maps only.
| Map | Liquid | Vitality |
|---|---|---|
| Inferno | 1–1 | 3–0 |
| Nuke | 2–0 | 2–0 |
| Mirage | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Dust2 | 0–1 | 0–3 |
| Anubis | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Overpass | Not played | 2–0 |
| Ancient | Not played | Not played |
The case for Liquid
Liquid’s best argument is uncertainty. Their recent numbers are weaker, but every result in the sample came before JT took over as IGL and before Jorko joined the active lineup. The team that faces Vitality may use a different veto, different T-side structure and different role distribution.
Who wins?
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Nuke is also the one clear positive in Liquid’s recent map data. They went 2–0 on it, including a convincing 13–5 win over HEROIC. If the new lineup keeps the map in its pool, Liquid at least have one demonstrated option that does not look statistically inferior.
The main problem is that none of this has been tested. Liquid have no official matches with the current five, and a new IGL normally needs time to establish protocols, mid-round communication and a stable map pool. Their weaker round differential and narrow two-month sample also leave little evidence that the previous structure was close to becoming competitive.
The case for Vitality
Vitality won eight of 14 maps during the selected period, posted a +23 round differential and produced those numbers against a consistently strong set of opponents.
Vitality went unbeaten on Inferno, Nuke and Overpass, which gives them flexibility in a best-of-three veto and makes it harder for Liquid to steer the series toward a single comfortable map.
The counterargument is that Vitality were not equally convincing everywhere. They went 0–3 on Dust2 and 0–2 on Anubis, creating two visible weaknesses that Liquid may try to target. Their 3–2 series record also shows that the recent run was solid rather than dominant.
The statistics establish the main arguments on both sides, but they do not fully account for Liquid’s new leadership structure or how the map veto may change with JT calling.
Open the match card below to see Winio’s full prediction for Liquid vs Vitality.
